
The Kentucky Mercenaries outlasted a plucky comeback attempt over a Kansas team that at times looked terribly outmatched. Congratulations to long time participant Henry (Nati Nobodies) Callard whose two entries climbed from 62nd and 102nd place to finish first (and seventh) respectively. Second place was taken by Walt (Vaj) Werner, who lost his bid for the top slot when OSU went down in the semis. Gary Rhodes vaulted into third place with the Kentucky win, knocking Art (Jon Passman) Schlichter all the way down to sixth. All three will win significant cash, plus the all-important Wimpy's March Madness Championship Polo Shirt, coveted by thousands, but worn by few.
It's time to make my annual observances of the other noteworthy events of 2012. After a successful partnership with an online payment service for nearly 15 years, that company severed all ties with me in 2011 after discovering (gasp) that this annual contest violated it's policy against gambling. This had the unfortunate consequence of forcing me to require all players to pay by check. Trust me, it has been every bit an inconvenience to me as it has been for you.
We had 245 entries, coincidentally the exact same number of entries we had in both 2009 and 2010. This is an encouraging increase over the 227 entries from last year. We are still in a severe economic recession, gasoline is at an all time high, unemployment remains rampant, and many people have had to tighten their belts. We DID lose quite a few players. I know participants who have been involved for nearly 20 years, that took a pass the last two years. It's only through the continued efforts of several people who work tirelessly to bring in new blood that keep our numbers up and our prestige high.
One again, our players have been successful in predicting the national champion. A whopping 50% (123) players pre-selected Kentucky as our 2012 survivors. Understandably, no other team came close. A very distant North Carolina came up second with 45 picks. The MSU Spartans garnered a respectable 27 votes among the Big Ten faithful. National Runner-up Kansas tied Missouri with 12 votes each. Ohio State was another favorite with 11. From there, it was another major drop with only a handful of teams given any consideration for national glory. Baylor topped this group with four votes. Syracuse - who certainly would have been more popular if their best defensive player hadn't been declared ineligible - and Duke - who suffered an uncharacteristic 1st round exit both only snagged 3 votes. Two players from Florida obediently put their faith in Florida State, while 3 long shots were bet on Murray State, Marquette, and Vanderbilt.
36 entries predicted the Final Two. Each will receive a $10 credit towards the 2013 Wimpy's March Madness pool. The 36 recipients are:
NATI NOBODIES (CINCINNATI,OH),
ANDY LOS (ARLINGTON HTS,IL),
BOB ALMADA (ELMHURST,IL),
KATHY KNUTSON (DOWNERS GROVE,IL),
WIMPY (WOOD DALE,IL),
ED LORGEREE2 (BUFFALO GROVE,IL),
SOMO 3 (SANTA MONICA,CA), AL KLEEN
(ROCKFORD,IL), LARRY ROTHENBERG (MILWAUKEE,WI), CHRIS GRANDE (MISHAWAKA,IN), ED MATULIS (LAS VEGAS,NV), MARK ALASHAIAN (EMERSON,NJ),
JEFF SEREMAK
(VILLA PARK,IL), ROBERT CRAWFORD (HENDERSON,NV), BILL ROOKER
(ROLLING MEADOWS,IL), DEREK WESTERLUND (TWIN LAKE,MI), DAN
SHIVE (HANOVER PARK,IL), OMELETS (WOODRIDGE,IL),
JULIE REAL
(NEW ORLEANS,LA), WANNABE COACH (NORTHBROOK,IL), SARKIS SHIRINIAN
(RIVER VALE,NJ), DUNBAR (JUPITER,FL), DAN KELLY (CHICAGO,IL), BRENT JACOB (SPENCER,IA),
SHO SUZUKI (GRAND RAPIDS,MI), JEFF GOLDMAN
(NORWALK,CT), MAX (RIVER FOREST,IL), SHAUN CLARK (CHICAGO,IL), RYAN GISTER (AURORA,IL), TERRY REDDINGTON (RIDGEFIELD,CT),
ASH (PORTLAND,OR), BRETT WESTERLUND (WHITEHALL,MI), SCOTT WALKER (HENDERSON, NV), MICHELE HINNENDAEL (MILWAUKEE,WI), JIM PIETRZAK (LA GRANGE,IL),
MIRIAM TOURNAI (TINLEY PARK,IL)
In case anyone was wondering, no one has yet ever submitted a perfect entry. A perfect score would total 3801 pts. This year, the winning total of 3361 did not come close to the record high score from 2007 of 3626 held jointly by Paul Astorino and Paul Laliberte. Every year around this time, there is talk in the media about how remote it would be to fill out a perfect bracket. There is always quite a bit of media play about how only a couple of the 6+ million ESPN brackets predicted the first few rounds perfectly. Let me put this to rest. Assuming all teams being equal, there are only 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 ways to fill out 63 blanks. That number is truly tiny. To give you an idea of just how tiny that number is, assume that every man, woman, and child on the planet (all 7,032,094,083 as I write this) started filling out entries. Let's assume that each could fill out an entire bracket in 1 second. That's 60 entries a minute, 3600 entries an hour, and so on, 24 hours a day nonstop. Once again, assuming no duplications, this army would exhaust all of the possibilities a little after 7am, October 25th, 2053. Why that's still in many of our lifetimes!
Now lets talk about some large numbers. Filling in blanks is nothing compared to rating each contest. It might surprise you to learn that there are over 20 10,654,499,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 different possible perfect entries into this competition. That's 55 decimal places! That's a BIG number. That the number is truly inconceivable. For example, if you were to write a different perfect entry on a single piece of copier paper, after only 20 1,314,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 sheets, (truly a miniscule fraction of the above number) the weight of the pile would outweigh the Earth. Of course this number is microscopic when compared to the number of possible imperfect entries - like yours. (126 followed by 87 zeroes). You should note that it is only possible to achieve a perfect score if you submit a consistent entry. Every year players submit entries with their 63 playing their 64 in the semi-finals, or two teams in the 50's playing in the second round. Experienced players usually avoid such careless errors.
Once again, thanks go out to the players who continue to recruit new players for the contest. Always helpful are Rick Beye, (who often facilitates numerous entries every year from the Spring North American Bridge Championships) and Kieran Duffy, who has recruited several successful regulars. It takes a little while to figure out how to put in a competitive entry, but most players come back. Please remember to keep my email address in your online address book. If you change providers, you must drop me a note so that I can update my records, or else you will be like the nearly 2 dozen or so people who didn't get contacted this year because I couldn't reach them at their last known email address. If, during the year, you would like to add someone to my contact list, feel free to forward me their email address. Once their data is in my distribution list, it takes very little extra effort to keep everybody informed. I would be surprised if we didn't crack 300 entries again soon.
New players should note that first time players have won in the past, and experienced players often do quite poorly. This year's champion, Henry Callard has been competing since at least 2002, but this is his first championship win. Last year's champion Paul Castino competed for only the third time, and has yet to finish worse than 30th. He had the highest score among previous champions at 27th, tied with 1999's Chris Grande and none other than Wimpy. Next best was Michele Russell (2008) in 81st place. The only other past champ to break the top 100 was Fred Kenny (1993) in 94th. Only three other past champs broke average in 2012, and they were Rich Worthington (2001) tied with Scott Meyer (2005) in 124th place and one-time high score holder Eddie Holman (1996) at 140th. All the rest of the past champions who participated finished below average. This list includes Ryan Gister (2006) in 152nd, and Jim Ketchum (2002 and 2009) finishing a disappointing 170th and 221st. Bringing up the rear were Paul Astorino (2007) in 189th, and Gerry Sexton who hit the last page in 218th. One thing that should be pretty clear, is that past accomplishments are rarely a yardstick for current success. This competition has a rich history, and I have every intention of preserving as much of it as I can.
My challenge was to devise a scoring system which rewards the most accurate picks, while recognizing the importance (but does not overvalue) early round upsets. Long time players know that perhaps the biggest key to the pool is not so much how big a number you put on a team that you thought would win and didn't (although that is a major factor), but more importantly how small a number you put on a team you thought wouldn't win, and did! There weren't a huge number of major upsets this year, however your entry probably had little to no chance if you didn't pick Florida, Xavier, or N.C. State, to win at least one game. Other than those key teams, your main chance to jump out of the gate with a strong score was to have decent numbers on Ohio, Cincinnati, and Louisville, while avoiding placing too much of your resources on Duke, Missouri, Michigan, Florida State or Georgetown., The first three of those teams won at least two games, and there was a great opportunity to pick up some significant points if you selected a few of them to over-achieve, but far more importantly were careful not to give any of them a critically low number. Picking any of the last four to exit relatively early also brought large rewards. Normally, there are a few dark horses that are ridden into the winner's circle. This year, with many of the favorites watching from home, the numbers you placed on those teams you thought would exit early became a critical factor as to whether you would contend or plummet.
Here are my nominations for 2012 No Prize Awards: Wimpy had his best finish in over 20 years. He only needed a
Kansas win in the final to win one of his own shirts.
There were 12 overall winners, and they should be quite proud. It was, as
always, a tough year. If you finished above average, congratulations. It was a
difficult accomplishment. There are a lot of savvy players (and damn good
guessers) in this pool. Most have expressed that the fun is in the competition,
and I must agree. While the monetary prize will sweet, I believe it is the honor
of winning that Henry will remember most about the 2012 tournament. All top 3 places also
receive the famous 2012 Wimpy's March Madness Champion embroidered shirt,
(not available in stores!) 2012 is in the record books. I am
predicting a Wimpy Landslide in 2013 as well as the continued popularity of
Wimpy Squares. Thanks to all who participated, and Don't forget
to tell me if you change your email address!
Bucky Badger had the highest 1st to last round gain of +129 places!
Patty Tournai had the greatest 1st to last round drop of -210 places! (She
started in 4th place!)
Both Somo 3 and Devin Warnkin flew out of the gate in
1st place but dropped to 14th (and all the way to 117th)
by the tourney finish.
Fred Flener was in the money every round except the first and
the last. He finished one out of prizes.
Laverne Wiebe and
Adrienne Cohen were both having a great tournament. Both needed Kansas to
make the overall awards. Both got nothing.
Chris Lubesnik started off the first
round ahead of two other entries. By the second round, he had it all to himself -
never letting it go.